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I would never trust Palin with our country or our military. I don't see her conversing with foreign countries either, and I take her experience with a grain of salt.

Maybe, but there's a lot about her that can backfire.  The women of my family find McCain's choice insulting.  The polls I've seen about her show she's not well known, and women support her substantially less than men.  So many polled have never heard of her, and with troopergate coming out, that may not help her so much.

Sad that Americans are that stupid to fall for that.  The person means nothing.  It's their policies.  Biden, however, can still make her look like a fool on foreign policy without "attacking" her.

She is NO moderate.  She's wildly conservative on gun rights, economics, birth control (seriously, she wants to ban condoms?).  Her personality could be a potential hazard.  If seen too "momish", people will question her national security credentials.  

Her approval rating is nowhere near 90% anymore.  After troopergate, she's around 60%, which is good, but Alaska is so conservative, it's not that unnatural.  She WAS initially for the bridge to nowehere, before she was against it.

Executive experience isn't that important, especially of a state where it's population is smaller than 17 major U.S cities.  I don't know about the donation thing, but your poll numbers are way off.  Obama still is up in the polls.  The latest day of the gallup tracking has Obama up 5, and that was taken after the Palin announcement.

If he maintains a 5 point lead, that's significant.  I have seen no poll in the favor of McCain.  Obama up 6 in the tracking polls is a little high now, but he will still be up when all of the days conclude past the announcement, which IS significant.  The bump/bounce is not dead.


My case against Palin is this:
-Troopergate, the first thing people hear about her.  It's not likely to have a good impression.
-Overhype, your first statement was correct.  No coverage is bad coverage.  When people learn about her, and the "wow" factor is over, her bump will die just as quickly as Obama's convention bump will.
-Insult, I know a lot of women are very insulted about this.  When women learn she's anti-feminist, even opposing equal pay for equal work, they will change their opinion.  All she did was excite the conservative base, most likely where the donations are.  A lot of women think she should take care of her *cough*daughters*cough* downs syndrome baby, not further her career.  She's no Hillary Clinton.
-Qualifications, if McCain, the oldest person elected to the office for a first term, if he wins, passess away in Office, many will be scared to see palin go up against Putin, Admenijad, etc.  I can trust McCain here, Obama here, Biden here, Hillary Clinton, but not Sarah Palin.
-Wildly conservative.  She's further to the right than Mike Huckabee, so I don't know why you say she's moderate.  Regardless, when independents learn how conservative she is, it's more likely to scare them away.

The reality is this, she will probably end up being negligable to the McCain camp, neither helping nor hurting.  But in the end, McCain is behind, because as long as McCain is tied to Bush, voters will decide to go Democratic, recalling the last 8 years vs the 8 before them.

The reality too, is that Palin will be under more scrutiny than Biden, because the odds of her taking the role are much greater than Biden.  I can handle McCain in office if I have to, but the idea of Palin being commander in chief scares the crap out of me, and probably quite a few voters.


EDIT:  Furhtermore, VP pick bounces are often quick to fade, and the VP pretty much never affects the voter opinion in the end.

Experience:  Obama has more that I trust.  A senator makes decisions on everyday issues a president would, he just becomes executive.  Someone from a far out state makes executive motions, but on issues where she's uneducated.  (Cant point out the Afgan pakistani border, wtf).

Alaksans think she's a poor choice for McCain.


He also only met her once before, then called her once to tell her she was it. She was not fully vetted, either. This shows McCain's poor judgement, and quick panic to Obama's convention. Most agree this is a hail mary, it may work, but odds are against him.

You obviously didn't hear why she in fact DOES have quite a bit of national security experience.


View this on YouTube

*sigh*

^^ *sigh* at Cindy McCain.

Joker, I looked up the "poll(s?)" you talked about, and found one. Obama actually has one of the biggest bounces in recent years from a convention.

Zogby online has McCain Palin over Obama Biden 47 to 45. Online polls are the biggest joke, since they have Obama over McCain in SOUTH CAROLINA!


Actual scientific polls have actually increased Obama's lead. Fox news, Bloomberg Daily, Rasmussen and Gallup still have a growing Obama lead. Many polled about Palin disapprove, and she has the lowest approval of a VP pick since Quayle.

Additionally, the online survey was bombed by the pumas, likely. As scientific polls indicate that only 9% of Clinton supporters support McCain, not 22% in Zogby.

Palin investigation results due October 31. That could be devestating to McCain, but if found innocent, it could be a cheap bounce. Voters are so damn impressionable.

I'm not sure why McCain would choose such an inexperienced person to be his VP. His criticisms of Obama seem baseless now, and it's pretty clear that he did this to attract former Hillary supporters. I think Obama's chances have just improved dramatically.

As do I, sir, as do I.

And you're the majority.  The right can cite one Zogby poll (where people pay to be polls), but the reality is, every other post convention, post Palin poll has Obama leading.  The GOP convention is likely to flop, and there's certainly no "monumentous" shift.  74% of pro Hillary, non Obama supporters polled after the convention said they now support Obama, goes to show, polls can go any which way.  

Every woman I talk to sees it as pandering, and is not only offended, but they now also question his judgement.  Even the most feminist of women I talked to say, that's nice, but I'd rather see a more qualified VP, seems like he did this just to win votes.  Now what does that say about McCain's judgement.

Even aides close to Palin from her office as governor question the choice. Picking a no-name makes all her negatives come out. I also go by intrade. McCain has been trading down ever since the pick, shoiwng that this may have backfired.

Why would Palin want to get rid of condoms....

Is she serious....

I'm an South Carolinian Obama supporter and I believe he Change the south one red state at a time

He won't win SC. However, he may win NC. Despite what joker says, a lot of radical rightists, namely evangelicas, are dismayed at the pick, and may either go for Barr, or not vote.

Many evangelicals cite the bible that women aren't to be in a position above the husband. Many are also upset on how she's not "at home taking care of her kids", BS as it is, it's real. If Obama wins NC, it's game over.

What people really need to look at is the meat of these polls. When polled, Republicans view her highly, but independents overwhelmingly disaproove. The new CNN poll only has Obama +1, but when you look at the Palin questions, all evidence points to a quick bump and reside from this pick.

Independents view her overwhelmingly unfavorably as opposed to favorably. Almost 5x as many say she makes them less likely than more likely to vote for McCain. When polled, overwhelming majorities, over 2/3 think she wouldn't be ready to take the office, (polling far worse than Obama, so don't give me the experience crap), and I think when McCain's age sets in, this is going to be a major detrement.

But the real meat is independent views on her positions. Again, almost 2/3 view her as conservative (1/5 as VERY conservative), while only about 13% view her as a moderate. Independents will self describe themselves as moderates. The more that is known about her, the less "oh she's like me" will come into play, and independents will fade very fast.

This also happens a lot from VP picks. I think Obama got no Biden bounce because it really was a safe pick, but it helped to assure the Democratic base (which, at 86%, is almost at the 89% Kerry value. If he gets to that 89, with how much better he's doing with independents than Kerry, it will be tough for McCain to win). People will realize she's not the top of the ticket, and she won't do that much.

I'm just relieved that so many people can see through the bullshit.

Seriously, banning condoms? Yeah there's a good idea. Twenty years from now, American is decimated by a gigantic mutation of STDs rendered airborne....

Even worse is that condoms are only deemed "effective" to a certain date, then they start to break down, so stocking up won't even work.

Like I said, it's this extremism, combined with the obvious pandering, and McCain's lack of judgement, that's going to make this pick go down as fast as it went up. McCain's campaign is doing the vetting now, sending teams to Alaska to investigate the Troopergate. I can't see him dropping her, as that would kill. Perhaps he's going to try and pay people off?

Even some of the most conservative Republican pundits are worried by this pick. Although she's a conservative, and being a woman has temporary excitement, her credentials don't appeal to independents (driving some McCain ones, who saw him as a maverick, towards Obama, seeing as McCain picked a staunch conservative). The long term effect is she's a poor choice, and it will die off.

How many major cities are in Arkansas? Isn't that were the Clintons are from? 6-7 over 50,000 people maybe? At least AK is large (most people don't realize just how large) and (surprisingly) varied.

BTW, the poll was Zogby I believe. The Gallup tracking is a 3 day average, so we'll see if Zogby was a fluke or an early indicator by Wednesday.

FYI this was as far as I read because I have to go... I'll read the rest later and reply if I get a chance!

Arkansas is much larger, hence the more electoral votes.

The CNN makes it a tighter race.

Even if Gallup is +6, with the averages, Obama should still be up, given the post Palin days included.

Is there a source for the "Palin wants to ban condoms" allegation?

It's quite out there. I've been reading so many political pundit things today, I just keep them all in Windows Sidebar notepad.  If I find it again I'll most certainly post it. A private vetting of Palin was done, and the results to not look too good for her. There are more allegations of power abuse.

I doubt the McCain team took much time at all to vet this gal, especially since McCain wanted Lieberman to be his running mate. She'll get a thorough vetting from the media now, and it won't be pretty, but it will be interesting.

Historically, a VP pick rarely affects the outcome of the election. This might be one of those rare times that it does however. Palin could potentially become President, and without any real experience, it will make voters think twice before voting for the McCain ticket. As sc7 has been saying, moderate Republicans and independents may be more inclined to either vote for Obama or not vote with her on the ticket.

With the RNC being cut short, McCain won't be able to defend his choice, and this may prove devastating. Obama just got a boost from the DNC, while McCain might lose points for a controversial VP pick. If McCain loses the moderate base, then Obama has just scored a major victory.

You're exactly right Luigifreak: the VP pick usually doesn't affect the outcome of the election--this one does. This is the first time I recall people saying "Damn, if that old fart dies, look who'll be in office! No thanks."

Oh and here's something awful:

I was commending her earlier to a friend for having the courage to be pregnant while in office. Um, turns out, it might not be her kid. Her son may be her grandchild. And if not that then...she was at the very least incredibly stupid, borderline insane, to do some of the things she did while pregnant.


http://www.celebitchy.com/13896/is_sarah...andmother/

Cindy McCain talking about how Palin has so much national security experience because Alaska is so close to Russia, is about as intelligent and believable as John McCain telling people he doesn't know how many houses he owns, and when asked about how many he does own goes into his spiel about how he was a POW.