05-31-2007, 01:18 PM
We all know there'll be a winner and then it'll increase in popularity for about 4/6 years then HVDs will be available, or even online movie players where you just pull your films from the internet
I'm choosing a side now in hopes that my small monetary vote will swing the format war (even though without my contribution, HD DVD will probably win anyway due to the lesser cost and Sony's track record with standards).
It will be much less than 10 years. Already people carry around memory cards and usb storage drives that dwarf full size hard drives from just a few years ago. Just how long before large flash memory becomes more economical than micro sized movable hard disc drives? As for blue laser DVDs not holding the market for long, maybe, maybe not, but it's worth a couple of hundred to me to watch my movies in 1080 lines of resolution instead of 480 for the next few years.
I can assure you that HD DVDs and/or Blu Ray will be around long enough for the companies in it to make money. Who do you think would have the resources to come up with the next standard? The companies that have already invested in these developing technologies. They aren't going to push for a new format until one is necessary, and until they've made their money off of the current one.
they may be made by the only major producers of optical media, but there has been a large movement away from that already... as evidenced by your statement about flash cards and usb drives. not to mention the growing number of high speed internet users and the growing availability of downloadable content (both legal and illegal). and that is what is truly progressing at a rate that i doubt optical media will even be around in a couple of decades except in museums. and i doubt companies like sandisk, seagate, samsung or hitachi really care about the optical media manufacturers and i can only see them making the optical media market obsolete w/in the next decade or two. probably sooner or later.
I'm choosing a side now in hopes that my small monetary vote will swing the format war (even though without my contribution, HD DVD will probably win anyway due to the lesser cost and Sony's track record with standards).
It will be much less than 10 years. Already people carry around memory cards and usb storage drives that dwarf full size hard drives from just a few years ago. Just how long before large flash memory becomes more economical than micro sized movable hard disc drives? As for blue laser DVDs not holding the market for long, maybe, maybe not, but it's worth a couple of hundred to me to watch my movies in 1080 lines of resolution instead of 480 for the next few years.
I can assure you that HD DVDs and/or Blu Ray will be around long enough for the companies in it to make money. Who do you think would have the resources to come up with the next standard? The companies that have already invested in these developing technologies. They aren't going to push for a new format until one is necessary, and until they've made their money off of the current one.
they may be made by the only major producers of optical media, but there has been a large movement away from that already... as evidenced by your statement about flash cards and usb drives. not to mention the growing number of high speed internet users and the growing availability of downloadable content (both legal and illegal). and that is what is truly progressing at a rate that i doubt optical media will even be around in a couple of decades except in museums. and i doubt companies like sandisk, seagate, samsung or hitachi really care about the optical media manufacturers and i can only see them making the optical media market obsolete w/in the next decade or two. probably sooner or later.
Two decades is a time frame that I cannot dispute. All I said is that the parties involved will get their money's worth before they allow it to switch to another format. Just because another company finds a newer or better way doesn't mean that company can get everyone on board, and that's what they'll need to change the market. Already we have an alternative to red laser media (blue laser of course) and yet, DVDs are still seen as having a lot of life left. Once they are edged out by newer technology (and they will, as the cost of that technology comes down), that newer technology will become the market standard and then something better will come along. Even though something better will exist, the sheer economics will keep the older technology in play for a period of time as the newer one spends time getting adopted. It's only been recently that local video stores pulled VHS tapes from the shelf (given, it's the south).
I will also say that I'm a big fan of downloadable media, for games, music, and movies, and have tried many of those (EA Link, Steam, Napster, Vongo, Amazon Unbox, etc). However, physical media still holds it's place in the market due to ease and comfort levels. While I like the instant gratification of downloading something and enjoying it, other people want to hold it in their hand or do not have the abilities, either in hardware or knowledge, to use non-physical media. Just because I know where to (legally) download movies in high quality and play them through my computer onto my TV does not mean a common person could or would even want to try when they can just buy or rent the movie on DVD and pop it in. There is still time for a new optical media to rise and fall before our houses are networked enough to allow downloadable content to become mainstream.
HVD = Holographic Versatile Disk. 700TB maximum storage per disk